Government pushes for monetary easing despite central bank doubts While India swelters in record high June temperatures, senior officials in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government are sweating for another reason. The heat is coming from a debate over whether the country is poised for a V-shaped recovery after last November’s shock demonetization or if it…
The RBI governor refuses to be drawn into the game of popularity stakes Well, I think we’ve still to get to a place where we feel satisfied. We have this saying, ‘in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. We’re a little bit that way. We feel things are turning to the…
The text message from the finance ministry went out close to midnight on Sunday. October 28, hardly a time when the ministry is expected to be working, the message informed its journalist recipients that Finance Minister P. Chidambaram would address the media less than 12 hours later. The subject of the interaction was not disclosed. With that began a sequence of…
Does this festive season herald fireworks or damp squibs? It is amazing how things come around. I was listening to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Houston speech. After speaking in several Indian languages, Modi said, “Maine itna hi kaha hai: Everything is fine.” Suddenly, I remembered the theme song from 3 Idiots. Eight years have gone…
The government is performing a risky high-wire balancing act Let me put it simply: the government is performing two balancing acts simultaneously. In order to get to this perilous position, it has time and again turned precedent on its head, laying it open for the next administration to also throw caution to the winds. This…
Will the NPA black hole suck in the country’s entire banking universe? With barely nine months to go before the Lok Sabha election, how serious is the crisis in our banking system? Put simply, it is not going to be resolved any time soon, although Gol is scrambling to force more medicine into the patient…
Modi can smoothly segue from pugnacious to presidential, and after two years of his ubiquitousness he can even appear statesmanlike in comparison with U.S. presidential hopeful Donald Trump and Rodrigo Duterte, the president-elect of the Philippines. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on June 8, he will…
The good news is that everybody– the International Monetary Fund was the latest to fall in line on Tuesday– agrees with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will be a modest 7% in 2019-20. The 0.3 percentage point reduction in its forecast is because of “a weaker-than-expected…
The government’s ‘Saaf Niyat, Sahi Vikas’ (Clean Intent, Right Development) campaign is expectation management in an election year. Nineteen months after demonetisation, we still do not have a final count for the total volume of banned currency notes returned to the nation’s banks. Are we really a less-cash economy now? Authorities had to scramble to…
Let me put it simply: the government is performing two balancing acts simultaneously. In order to get to this perilous position, it has time and again turned precedent on its head, laying it open for the next administration to also throw caution to the winds. This is not good for a country of our size.…
“Curiouser and curiouser” sums up India’s economy. There is little or no credit, tepid business and consumer confidence, exports are struggling, and yet gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a healthy 7.7 percent in the January-March quarter, and is seen rising by 7.4 percent in fiscal 2018-19. If you read the Reserve Bank of India’s…
Separately, an Asset Quality Review ordered by Rajan to attack crisis levels of bad loans made by state-owned banks and an accompanying crackdown on ‘willful defaulters’ among oligarchs in the infrastructure sector who have borrowed recklessly for stalled projects may have earned Rajan too many powerful and politically connected enemies. Businessmen opposed to the…
Indian markets, already skittish over Britain’s Brexit referendum, now must deal with the surprise announcement on June 18 by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan that he is stepping down when his three-year term ends on September 4. Tough, uncompromising and outspoken, Rajan, 53, appeared to be doing budget signs everything that…
In its Oct. 4 report, the RBI appeared to highlight the upside risk of inflation. It said that its September survey of household expectations saw inflation at 9.5% three months ahead and 11.4% a year ahead, driven mainly by higher food and healthcare costs. RBI staff forecast CPI averaging 5.3% in the fourth (Jan-March) quarter…
Urjit Patel’s first press conference as governor of the Reserve Bank of India on Oct. 4 was notable for several reasons. The new keeper of India’s monetary flame, just shy of his 53rd birthday, was ill at ease. Very clearly the antithesis of his loquacious predecessor Raghuram Rajan, Patel’s “media interaction” lasted all of 20…
Will demonetization vacuum up all the black money? Economists believe most illicit, untaxed funds would be diverted into buying gold or real estate; indeed, gold imports spiked in the days immediately following the announcement. But will India ever be cashless? A Nomura Securities report said that India’s cash-to-gross domestic product ratio was high at…
Every Indian banknote carries two reassuring messages: “Guaranteed by the central government,” and above the signature of the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, the words: “I promise to pay the bearer the sum of … rupees.” At midnight on Nov. 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi used an executive fiat to extinguish both…
Modi’s war on black money has hit India’s economy. Is the price worth paying? One month after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the demonetization of 500 and 1,000-rupee banknotes in his battle against black money, policymakers in New Delhi are finally starting to acknowledge that the shock move has caused immense upheavals, loss…
Not surprisingly for a country obsessed with politics and gossip, the appointment of India’s new central bank chief has already spawned reams of newsprint and hours of television talk-time on what makes Urjit Ravindra Patel tick. Two words sum up Patel: low key. Unlike other deputy governors of the Reserve Bank of India he has…
CHAITANYA KALBAG, contributing writer NEW DELHI – Although his three-year term as governor of the Reserve Bank of India was one of the shortest in the last 25 years, Raghuram Rajan will leave a pair of very large shoes to fill after his departure on Sept. 4. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is taking…
CHAITANYA KALBAG, contributing writer “That is a hard standard for anybody’s commentary to meet, especially if you have a press which is continuously looking for what they think are slights to the government. It is easy to build on that,” he noted as he sought to correct claims that his governorship was one “which has…
As he leaves India’s central bank, Rajan takes aim at his critics and points out the challenges awaiting his successor NEW DELHI Although his three-year term as governor of the Reserve Bank of India was one of the shortest in the last 25 years, Raghuram Rajan will leave a pair of very large shoes to…
10 December 1998 Reuters News English (c) 1998 Reuters Limited NEW DELHI, Dec 10 (Reuters) – BankAmerica Corp will sell its retail banking business in India but remains committed to its wholesale banking business in the country, a senior bank official said on Thursday. “The bank will continue its wholesale banking business in India,” Josephine…
27 August 1991 Reuters News English (c) 1991 Reuters Limited TOKYO, Reuters – India hopes to receive substantial financial aid from a consortium of donors next month, Finance Secretary Sriranga Shukla said on Tuesday. Shukla, in Tokyo for talks ahead of the September 19-20 meeting in Paris, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World…
13 April 1992 Reuters News English (c) 1992 Reuters Limited TOKYO, Reuters – India intends to ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for more contingency funds, although foreign reserves are at a very comfortable level, Finance Minister Manmohan Singh said. Singh, who has spearheaded a series of sweeping reforms that have turned India’s socialist economic…
29 August 1997 Reuters News English (c) 1997 Reuters Limited NEW DELHI, Aug 29 (Reuters) – Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said the rupee’s volatility had subsided and the policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was to intervene to prevent volatility and speculative activity in the market. “The value of the rupee will be…
From the Editor Raghuram Govind Rajan is a lucky man. Two weeks into his new job as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India his friend Ben Bernanke, who he calls “cautious and nuanced” in his book Fault Lines, handed him a big gift- a delay in the “taper” in the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative…
Sometimes India’s economy resembles a rambunctious teenager brought up short by a finger-wagging headmaster. Our finance minister can now recite with his eyes closed a string of figures that seek to prove that India has not done badly at all in comparison with the rest of the developing- and indeed the developed- world. P. Chidambaram…
From the Editor Three economists are gazing at a glass half full of water. The optimist sees a glass half full. The pessimist sees a glass half empty. The realist picks up the glass and drinks the water. I’m sure you’ve heard that joke, but we are hard put to find some levity as we…
From the Editor By the time this issue of Business Today hits the news stands, voting for new governments in three Indian states will be completed. The seven-phase Uttar Pradesh election will stretch through February. Tiny Goa follows in early March. When the votes are counted on March 6, one in five Indians will have…
Of all the functions of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), there is one routine task crucial to the health of the economy: incinerating the mounds of soiled currency notes well past their prime and providing the commercial banks with mint-fresh replacements. Last month, in an effort to clear the backlog of ‘non-issuable notes’-inevitable when…
Last week-end the seesaw battle being waged by Swraj Paul to take over Escorts and DCM slowed to a less suspenseful motion when the London-based industrialist suffered a series of setbacks. The first and predictable one came when Escorts’ Board of Directors refused on June 9 to register 4,62,377 shares lodged by Paul’s brokers Harish…
The government must resist the temptation to dip its hand in the till. The Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) is the best-run company in India: transparent, diligent, accountable, and (ostensibly) independent. Its official capital is a paltry Rs 5 crore, yet year after year it rewards its sole shareholder, the government, with mind-boggling dividends. The…
We need our institutions as much as we need our democracy Narendra Modi’s first term in office will be bracketed by malodorous stand-offs with two governors of the Reserve Bank of India. The bad blood between the central bank and the finance ministry is just one of the stains blotting the government’s copy-book as it…