France’s Economic Growth Slows – Sluggish GDP Adds to Euro-Zone Gloom, But German Exports Rise
Published date: 12th Sep 2001, International Herald Tribune
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The French economy expanded in the second quarter at its weakest pace in two and a half years as the global economic slowdown chipped away at activity, the government said Tuesday.
Growth in the second-largest economy in the 12-nation euro zone eased to 0.3 percent compared with the first quarter. when gross domestic product grew at a slower-than-expected 0.4 percent rate.
The report was the latest gloomy news issuing from euro-zone powerhouses, all of which have been affected by the global economic decline.
One glimmer that this trend may be reversing emerged Tuesday as Germany reported a widening of its trade surplus in July from the year-ago period amid a jump in exports. But economists said it was too early to say whether the data signaled a lasting improvement. German growth ground to a halt in the second quarter as the world slowdown took its toll on the country’s leading exporters.
France’s finance minister, Laurent Fabius, has tried to maintain an optimistic growth outlook, insisting that growth would pick up later in the year, and that France is growing faster than its partners.
But the Bank of France governor, Jean-Claude Trichet, has been more cautious, saying forecasts are permanently being reviewed. Mr. Trichet has said he expected growth to pick up only slightly in the third quarter, to a 0.4 percent clip.
Private-sector economists have tended to be more optimistic. Economists said France stood out among the euro-zone nations thanks to sturdy household spending, which has shielded it against a slowdown in foreign demand for export goods.
“This figure confirms that there was a slowdown,” Nicolas Claquin, an economist at CCF in Paris, said of the second- quarter growth figure. But, he added, “France is doing better than its main partners in the euro zone.”
Nonetheless, growth in household consumption slowed to 0.3 percent in the second quarter compared to the 1.2 percent rise in the first quarter, the data showed. Consumers’ confidence in the second quarter was sapped by high food and energy prices and the first rise in the unemployment rate in three years.
Growth in overall investment, the other component considered as crucial to compensate for a drop in demand for French goods, ground to a zero rate in the second quarter, after a revised 0.6 percent in the first quarter.
Conditions may decline further. Industry executives have scaled back their expectations amid signs of a sharper- than-expected weakening in growth in Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy and France’s biggest trade partner.
Germany’s GDP was unchanged in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. Italy meanwhile posted a 0.1 percent drop in GDP in the second quarter from the first. Marie-Pierre Ripert, economist at CDC in Paris, said she expected euro-zone growth figures, scheduled for release on Thursday, to show the area’s economy expanded just 0.1 percent in the second quarter compared with the first.
“For the moment there is absolutely no sign of a turnaround,” said Emmanuel Ferry, economist at Exane.
“The impact of the global slowdown on the French economy will continue to be felt in 2002.”







